The Odds of Winning the Lottery

You might expect that, out of this many number combinations, someone wins the jackpot with each draw. Actually, sometimes the top prize is not hit for months in a row, resulting in some truly spectacular jackpots as the prize money rolls over to the next month. It makes you wonder: what are the odds of winning the lottery? 

So, let’s grab our calculators and do some math.

Lottery in South Africa

South Africa’s national lottery has been operated by Ithuba Holdings since 2015. There are several games available:

• Lotto, Lotto Plus 1, and Lotto Plus 2: 6 numbers are drawn between 1 and 52. For an additional fee, players can enter the second and third draw for extra chances to win.

• PowerBall: 5 numbers are drawn between 1 and 50. In addition, an extra “PowerBall” number is drawn, between 1 and 20.

• Daily LOTTO: a daily lottery draw of 5 numbers between 1 and 36.

Each of these games has a different winning condition. In general, the more numbers you predict correctly, the higher the prize you win. The biggest prize is available on PowerBall: a jackpot worth R232 million was taken home by a lucky player in February 2019.

Lotto Odds

Lotto draws happen on Wednesdays and Saturdays. There are 6 numbers drawn out of a pool of 52. A bonus number is also drawn for a total of six. To win the top prize, you have to correctly guess all six numbers. The exact value of the prize depends on the total prize pool and the carryover prize from the previous draw, if any. There are several possible winning combinations - here are the odds for each of them:

Combination of numbers	Odds of winning
6 correct numbers	1 in 20,358,520
5 correct numbers + bonus ball	1 in 3,394,753
5 correct numbers	1 in 73,763
4 correct numbers + bonus ball	1 in 10,057
4 correct numbers	1 in 1,311
3 correct numbers + bonus ball	1 in 514
3 correct	1 in 67
2 correct numbers + bonus ball	1 in 64

Lotto Plus 1 and Lotto Plus 2 Odds

Lotto Plus 1 and Lotto Plus 2 allow you to play the same numbers in two additional draws. For this, you need to pay an extra fee, of course. But does this improve your chances of winning?

Yes and No

The odds of you winning in any of the three Lotto draws are the same for each individual draw. But when you look at your overall chances of winning any prize in three consecutive lottery draws increase significantly: you have a close to 10% chance to win a prize if you participate in both subsequent draws.

PowerBall Odds

PowerBall draws take place on Tuesdays and Fridays. There are 5 numbers drawn from a total of 50. A bonus number - the PowerBall - is also drawn from a separate pool of 20 numbers. Once again, the exact value of the prize depends on the prize pool (ticket sales) and the rollover amount from the previous draw. These are the odds of winning each prize in PowerBall:

Combination of numbers	Odds of winning
5 correct numbers + PowerBall	1 in 42,375,200
5 correct numbers	1 in 2,118,760
4 correct numbers + PowerBall	1 in 188,651
4 correct numbers	1 in 9,412
3 correct numbers + PowerBall	1 in 4,282
3 correct numbers	1 in 214
2 correct numbers + PowerBall	1 in 299
1 correct numbers + PowerBall	1 in 57
PowerBall	1 in 20

PowerBall Plus

For an additional fee, you can participate in the PowerBall Plus draw with the same numbers. This improves your chances of winning any prize significantly but doesn’t increase your chances to win any of the individual prizes. 

Daily Lotto

As its name shows, Daily Lotto is the lottery draw that happens each day in South Africa. Here, you need to correctly guess 5 numbers out of the 36 drawn. There are four tiers (divisions) for the prizes, and these are their odds:

Combination of numbers	Odds of winning
5 correct numbers	1 in 377,520
4 correct numbers	1 in 2,432
3 correct numbers	1 in 81
2 correct numbers	1 in 8

Other Lotteries

6 numbers drawn is the most common lottery format around the world. The size of the pools from which they are drawn changes slightly: 

• Canada Lotto and the German Lotto draw 6 numbers out of 49

• The UK’s National Lottery draws 6 numbers from 59

• Russia’s Gosloto 6/45 draws 6 numbers from 45

Many of the biggest lotteries in the world draw 5 numbers and 1 or 2 bonus numbers for jackpots:

• EuroMillions draws 5 numbers from a pool of 50 + 2 Lucky Star numbers from a pool of 12

• South Africa’s Daily Lotto draws 5 numbers from a pool of 36

• The US PowerBall draws 5 numbers from a pool of 69 + 1 PowerBall from a pool of 26

• The US Mega Millions draws 5 numbers from a pool of 70 + 1 Mega Ball from a pool of 25

• The French Lottery (Loto) draws 5 numbers from a pool of 49 + a bonus number (Numéro Chance) from a pool of 10

There are some lotteries with more or less numbers drawn in each session:

• Russia’s Goslotto 7/49 draws 7 numbers out of a pool of 49

• Daily lotteries and “Pick 4” games in the US draw 4 numbers

• Australia’s TattsLotto and the Irish lottery both draw 7 numbers. 

These variations do influence the odds of hitting the jackpot on each of them.